Are the Global Markets Shifting Away from U.S. Price Correlation?

Well over a month ago we warned our followers of a “capital market shift” that was taking place in the global markets. Nearly 3 months before that time, we warned that China’s economy was about to enter a sustained economic down trend cycle that could be dangerous to the global markets. Today, we offer further evidence that the global markets are, in fact, shifting away from a price correlation to the U.S. stock market and this move could be a warning sign that emerging markets and global markets could lead the world into an extended stagflation cycle.

Think about this for a minute, as we briefly discussed in our last article, what would happen if the U.S. markets continued to rally on a strong economy with strong consumer participation while the U.S. Fed was slow to raise interest rates while supporting a transitional shift of the US economy towards more manufacturing, technology, and expectations? How would the world’s economies react to such a shift given their current economic cycles and opportunities? Would they be able to keep up with the U.S. or would they start to trail further and further behind the U.S.?

It is our belief that any continued strengthening of the U.S. economy could, in fact, present real dangers for many of the world’s economies simply because they may fall completely out of sync with the U.S. stock market as their currencies, economies and consumer expectations fail to keep up with the U.S. capabilities. How all of this will play out over the next few months/years is our concern. We know it will result in some tremendous trading opportunities for investors, but it could also create a new class of undervalued assets that could present some real long term opportunity over the next 20+ years.

Let’s start by taking a look at our China/Asia custom index to show how the past 60+ days have more clearly shown this price disconnect happening. When you look at this chart, pay attention to how closely this custom index (the candles) have moved in relation to the SPY (the blue area chart overlaid onto the candles). Notice how the moves in the SPY were relatively closely mirrored by the custom index. This is a direct price correlation to the SPY over an extended period of time.

Now, focus on the last 6 - 9 bars on this chart and take a really close look at how the SPY has rallied higher while this custom index has stayed flat to lower over the same time frame. The only answer for this type of price disconnect is that a global capital shift could be underway that is driving capital out of certain markets and away from risk and danger. In other words, it is our opinion that the China/Asia markets are starting to be perceived as riskier and more dangerous in relation to the U.S. market and other more mature markets.

Now, let’s take a look at the BRICS custom index. YIKES!! What happened here? Through most of 2017, a price correlation can be seen where the BRICS index moved somewhat in unison with the SPY price activity – although in some cases a bit delayed. Yet, after March 2018, something dramatic happened. When the SPY rotated lower in late March 2018, the BRICS index stayed relatively flat near the highs. Then in May 2018, a price disconnect became very evident as the SPY began to rally while the BRICS index began to sell off – very dramatically. The BRICS index also broke through the BLUE price channel recently which is another sign that price trends/activities have shifted.

You should now be starting to see what we have been warning you about for months – the global capital market shift that is taking place. This is happening because mature nations and economies are capable of achieving great economic growth and stability than many foreign markets and because many foreign markets have squandered the last 10+ years attempting to expand externally and not support their fundamental economic needs. As we have used this example before, a flower only has two modes of operation – flower mode (expand) or survive (keep the core plant alive). We believe these foreign markets have been in “flower mode” for the past 10+ years and have failed to support the core elements of their economies.

Now, onto more examples, this time Western Europe. Again, this custom index is weighted with the SPY, so it should reflect some of the price support of the recent uptrend. Yet, we see the most recent few weeks of this chart have shown a dramatic downtrend? This would indicate that the European markets/currencies are disconnecting from the US majors at a much more dramatic pace, recently, that they have been over the past few years. Yikes!

What about India & SE Asia? Our custom India index has shown relatively FLAT recent price activity compared to the SPY. Overall, our opinion is that India has yet to completely diverge from the U.S. majors and we urge all investors to be aware that any further price breakdown in this India custom index will warn that the Indian/SE Asian economies are losing their battle to stay correlated to the U.S. markets going forward. Right now, there is evidence of weakness in the India custom index – yet there are limited signs of a broken correlation to the U.S. markets. It certainly shows that this price disconnect could be happening and likely is happening – yet we don’t have clear signs that this custom index is breaking to new lows (yet).

Lastly, let's take a look at our Russia/Eastern Europe custom index for signs of a price disconnect. This chart is somewhat similar to the India chart (above). There are signs of weakness and downside price rotation while the SPY has been rallying, yet there is not massive disconnect evident on the right edge of the chart. We believe the recent downside price rotation within this custom index are the early warning signs of a price disconnect in the early stages of setting up (just like in the India chart). We believe these charts clearly show that the US market (and other mature economies) are advancing beyond the functional capabilities of many emerging and foreign markets. What will come from this, if it continues to play out as we expect, is a huge number of opportunities for traders and investors.

The next 3 to 5 years are likely to be very interesting and exciting for traders and investors. These types of moves don’t happen too often and should these markets continue to rotate as we are expecting, we could see some very big currency and foreign market moves over the next few months and years. You owe it to yourself to stay ahead of this move and learn how to profits from the extended volatility that will likely result from this price disconnect.

We believe we have nailed this analysis as we have correctly called the weakness in China/Asia as well as the global capital shift that is starting to play out in the global markets. We already know what will likely move and when we should expect these opportunities to set up. We are preparing our valued subscribers for this move and protecting them by providing them even more detailed research and analysis than you are seeing here.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn how this could be the biggest opportunity of your trading and investing life and how you need a qualified and dedicated team of researchers to help you stay ahead of these moves over the next 2+ years with our long term discounted subscription plan and Save 39%. There will come a time when you will be wishing you had access to our proprietary research and member only trade alerts and investment positions. Become a technical trader today [just visit here] and prosper with us!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

These Three Key Elements Will Drive Stocks Higher Into Year End

Last week was a roller coaster ride for traders and investors. After a long holiday weekend, traders were greeted with concerns originating in Italy regarding political stability and the potential that any further issues could result in a collapse of the EU. Even though the risk of this happening was somewhat minor, the US markets tanked near 2% as fear seemed to override common sense. The rest of this week has been a wild ride of price rotation within a range. We’ve been reading all types of news and comments regarding all types of “what if” scenarios from analysts and researchers while scratching our heads at some of the comments.

As we stated in our earlier article regarding the Italy political crisis [read it here], the one important aspect to trading and investing is to not lose focus on the true perspective and true market fundamentals. Yes, if you are an intraday trader, these wild price swings can either be great profits or wild losses as you try to swing with these rotational moves. As a swing traders/investor, though, we care about the overall stability and direction of the markets. We are willing to ride out some rotation as long as our core analysis is sound and the technical and fundamental basis of our trades is still in place.

In our opinion, there are three things that are core elements of our analysis at the moment and these three things are likely driving the economic future of the US equity markets.

The US Dollar continues to strengthen as the US economy shows solid signs of a broad based economic increase. Oil/Energy prices have continued to decline recently, now down nearly 10% from the recent peak, and this decrease relates to supply and demand expectations throughout the end of this year (roughly 4 - 6 months into the future). The Transportation Index is pushing higher as stronger economic activity is expected throughout the rest of 2018 and into 2019.

These Three Key Elements Cross-Populate as Follows

1.  The strong US dollar is acting like a magnet for foreign capital investment as the strength of the US dollar in combination with the strength of the US economy/equities markets creates a triple-whammy for foreign capital investments. Not only are foreign investors trying to avoid capital devaluation (currency price devaluation) and debt risks in their own local markets, they are trying to find ways to achieve ROI and stability for their capital investments. With almost nowhere else to go, the US equities markets and debt markets are pretty much the only place on the planet for this triple-whammy opportunity.

2.  The strong US jobs numbers and robust economic activity, in combination with the past capital market stimulus and lowered interest rates, are creating a fuel heavy economic environment in the US not that President Trump’s deregulation and policies have injected the Oxygen needed to create the “economic combustion” that is driving this current growth. Energy prices are moderate and dropping as a result of the shift in technologies attributed to electric and hybrid transportation enterprises. All of this, jobs growth, earning growth, economic growth, moderately low interest rates and a true combusting economy, provides for much greater opportunities for an advancing US equities market.

3.  The US equities markets are rotating higher throughout the global weakness and debt concerns while the Transportation index pushes higher as a sign that US investors expect the US economy to continue to grow. Transportations lead the us equities markets by about 4 to 6 months (on average). Lower oil prices, strong jobs numbers, dynamic opportunities in the US economy and a stronger US dollar drive continued US and foreign investments into the US equities markets and debt markets.

As we have stated in earlier research posts regarding “capital migration”, capital (cash) is always seeking the best environments for stability, growth and opportunity in a continual effort to balance risk vs. reward. Capital is capable of moving across the planet relatively quickly in most cases and is always seeking the best opportunity for ROI and stability while trying to balance unknown risks and devaluation. Right now, the only games in town are the established economies, the US, Canadian and UK markets.

As you can see in the graph below US investments continue to grow as the best risk/reward for capital.

Our opinion is that until something dramatic changes this current global economic environment and risk unknown, capital will continue to rush into the US markets even if the US dollar continues to climb or oil continues to fall. The only thing that can change this equation is the one key factor in understanding risk vs. reward – when does the opportunity for reward outweigh the risk of complete failure by applying capital into any other foreign or non-established market environment? When investors believe the reward of moving capital out of the US equity markets in search of new opportunities or advantageous risk/reward setups in foreign markets exists, that is when we’ll see a change in investment dynamics resulting in more downside pricing pressure in the US markets – and we don’t believe that will happen within the immediate 4~6+ month span.

Pay attention to our most recent research as we have been dead-on in terms of calling these market swings. The NQ chart, below, shows how the tech heavy NASDAQ is leading the breakout while the YM and ES markets lag a bit. We believe all of these US majors are in the process of breaking to new all time price highs and as the foreign market turmoil slowly unfolds, we may see some moderate price rotation. Yet we believe the global economic dynamics that are currently in place create a very opportunistic, rich, green opportunity for continued capital infusion into the US equity markets and a continued moderate advance of the US Dollar.

Remember, there is now over $12 trillion in capital that has been created and introduced into the global markets over the past 10+ years. All of this capital is searching for projects and investments to develop suitable ROI and gains. Where do you think this capital is going to go for the most stable, most capable and most successful ROI available on the planet? Think about that for a minute – where else would you consider putting capital to invest for safe and consistent returns right now?

This weekend could prompt a massive upside price breakout early next week on continued positive economic news or lack of any foreign market concerns. The bias of the US equity market is, and has been, bullish – just as we have been telling our members. If you have been fooled by this recent price rotation or other research posts, please consider Technical Traders Ltd. services to learn how we can help you profit from these moves.

We know you value our research and hard work trying to keep you ahead of these market turns and swings. Please consider joining our other loyal members where you’ll receive exclusive updates, video content, trading signals and access to our proprietary price modeling systems and proprietary research reports. Our proprietary research is already showing us where this market should be trading well into July 2019. If you value our research, analysis and detailed reporting like this article, then please visit The Technical Traders to learn how you can join our other members and begin receiving our exclusive research and more.

See you in the markets!
Chris Vermeulen

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